Research Abstract: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of the 2026 Gulf conflict has produced the most severe global energy supply disruption since the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Approximately 20% of global oil supply and a comparable share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade — roughly 12–15 million barrels per day of crude oil and over 100 billion cubic meters of annual LNG capacity — has been disrupted since late February 2026. Crude oil prices have surged past USD 100 per barrel, LNG prices in Asia have spiked to multiples of pre-crisis levels, and fertilizer...
Women’s Economic Empowerment and Productivity in South Asia: Lessons from Subnational Success Stories
Research Abstract: South Asia has the lowest female labor force participation rate (FLFPR) of any region in the world. Across the subcontinent, only approximately 25–30% of working-age women participate in the labor force, compared with approximately 50% globally and approximately 60% in East and Southeast Asia. This gender participation gap represents one of the most significant untapped sources of productivity growth in the region. Yet, within South Asia, specific states, sectors, and communities have achieved dramatic improvements in women’s economic participation and empowerment —...
MSME Productivity and Economic Growth in South and Southeast Asia: Lessons from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia
Research Abstract: Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) are the backbone of economic activity across South and Southeast Asia. In India, MSMEs account for approximately 30% of GDP, 45% of manufacturing output, and more than 110 million jobs. In Indonesia, they contribute approximately 61% of GDP and employ more than 97% of the workforce. In Vietnam, they generate approximately 40% of GDP and employ more than 50% of the formal labor force. Yet despite their aggregate economic significance, the productivity of individual MSMEs — measured as output per worker or value added per...
Subnational Productivity Divergence in Large Developing Economies: Comparative Evidence from India, Indonesia, and the Philippines
Research Abstract: National productivity statistics — GDP per worker, total factor productivity, aggregate growth rates — mask enormous variation within large developing economies. In India, per capita income in the richest major state (Goa) is approximately eight times that of the poorest (Bihar). In Indonesia, per capita output in Jakarta is approximately five times the national average and more than ten times that of the poorest provinces in Eastern Indonesia. In the Philippines, the National Capital Region (Metro Manila) produces approximately 36% of national GDP with less than 14%...
AI and the Productivity of Informal Enterprises in Asia-Pacific
Research Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a potentially transformative force — not through the large-scale enterprise deployments that dominate headlines in advanced economies, but through a distinct set of pathways that are beginning to reach informal enterprises and workers in developing Asia-Pacific. These pathways include AI-powered financial technology (fintech) that extends credit scoring to borrowers without formal financial histories; AI-enabled digital platforms that connect informal producers to wider markets; AI-driven agricultural advisory services that...
Green Productivity in South Asia: Balancing Environmental Sustainability and Inclusive Growth
Research Abstract: South Asia faces a defining development challenge: how to sustain the rapid economic growth that has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty while addressing the environmental degradation that threatens to undermine those very gains. The region’s GDP growth has averaged 5–7% annually over the past two decades, yet this growth has been accompanied by accelerating carbon emissions, severe air and water pollution, deforestation, soil degradation, and increasing vulnerability to climate change impacts. The productivity of South Asian economies — measured conventionally...
Structural Transformation, Gig Work, and Labor Market Informality in Developing Asia: Trends, Determinants, and Policy Responses
Across the middle-income economies that constitute the demographic and economic center of gravity of the region — India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand — the composition of informality is shifting decisively toward services, and within services, toward a rapidly growing category that defies traditional analytical frameworks: platform-mediated gig work.