Research Abstract: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of the 2026 Gulf conflict has produced the most severe global energy supply disruption since the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Approximately 20% of global oil supply and a comparable share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade — roughly 12–15 million barrels per day of crude oil and over 100 billion cubic meters of annual LNG capacity — has been disrupted since late February 2026. Crude oil prices have surged past USD 100 per barrel, LNG prices in Asia have spiked to multiples of pre-crisis levels, and fertilizer...
AI and the Productivity of Informal Enterprises in Asia-Pacific
Research Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a potentially transformative force — not through the large-scale enterprise deployments that dominate headlines in advanced economies, but through a distinct set of pathways that are beginning to reach informal enterprises and workers in developing Asia-Pacific. These pathways include AI-powered financial technology (fintech) that extends credit scoring to borrowers without formal financial histories; AI-enabled digital platforms that connect informal producers to wider markets; AI-driven agricultural advisory services that...
Structural Transformation, Gig Work, and Labor Market Informality in Developing Asia: Trends, Determinants, and Policy Responses
Across the middle-income economies that constitute the demographic and economic center of gravity of the region — India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand — the composition of informality is shifting decisively toward services, and within services, toward a rapidly growing category that defies traditional analytical frameworks: platform-mediated gig work.